Posts tagged CKSW
Money McBags isn’t going to be able to get to a full column today because other shit has come up (and it’s not just up because he found Olivia Munn’s new Maxim photo shoot). Money McBags knows his column has been a bit sporadic since he hit his one year anniversary (and loyal readers know he took maybe one day off in that whole first year which was a pace that has garnered him several entries in the next Guinness Book of World Records such as “most original humor content in a year,” “most Paris Hilton herpes jokes in a year,” “most one-liners written in a year,” and “most use of the third person in a year”), but the column has been getting longer and Money McBags is just at a time where he has other shit he has to do. Remember, all he charges his readers is their dignity, and unfortunately, dignity doesn’t put lap dances on the table.
Money McBags is doing his best to maintain this as a daily column, so just tickle his balls here a bit as he works through the other shit (and if you are his new crush Malene Espensen, then seriously, tickle his balls) as even at three or four days a week, Money McBags’ stuff is still better than any of that shit out there, so either live with Money McBags missing a day here or there for now or spread the fucking word because if Money McBags can just get 1MM readers (and he is within a rounding error of that, that is if Chris Burke were doing the rounding), he is pretty sure he could put everything else on the back burner and pump more and better shit out for all of you.
Anyway, Money McBags knows what you’re all thinking “cry me a fucking river funny boy now shut up and write some jokes.” So without further ado (and as always Money McBags has no idea what “ado” is, but he is glad there will be no further of it), this is what Money McBags would have written about had he had time for a column today.
He would have written about banks being upgraded to “buy the shit out of them” by the Wells Fargo, which is a bit like Alan Greenspan defending the Fed in front of congress, but whatever.
He would have had a shitload of jokes and analysis about the Fed’s little beige book which said holiday spending and increased manufacturing drove an economic expansion across the U.S. in November and December, businesses remain cautiously optimistic for 2011, and Elizabeth Duke doesn’t put out on the first rate hike (unless you get her a bit TIPS-y and apply excessive stimulus).
He would have mentioned that import prices rose 1.1% which would have led Money McBags to once again harp on the fallacy of “core inflation” which is like using a nut hair as a measure of Lexington Steele’s schlong.
He would have yawned at mortgage applications rising by 2.2%, rolled his eyes at Geithner whining about China’s currency being undervalued (and likely thrown in a fantastic pee pee flavored coke joke), and salivated over the leaked JWOWW topless photo even if it obviously isn’t her as one must dare to dream.
He would have also pointed out the interesting fact that short selling is at one year low (which is a huge contra-indicator), and then pointed out the even more interesting fact that Abe Vigoda‘s balls are at their 80 year low.
He then would have tackled the market and pointed out that ITT was up 15% after announcing they were going to split the company in to three separate business units (no doubt called called I, T and T) in order to do away with any economies of scale. He also would have pointed out that Zales was up 40% thanks to an 8.5% jump in same store sales which highlights the fucking inzanity of the economy because if a store as zhitty as Zales which is selling down market luxury items can start performing, then clearly the extra 14MM people unemployed above the fictitious natural rate of unemployment are completely fucking worthless.
Finally Money McBags would have jumped to small caps and pointed out CKSW which sold off after pre-announcing lower revenue yesterday and is getting to a very interesting entry point (though not as interesting of an entry point as any of Kayla Collins‘ orifices, or is it orifi?). The company is still going to put up $18MM of revenue in Q4 which is 5% growth but will give them $70MM revenue for the year which is 15% growth. That said, they also guided down profits due to investing for growth (and their book to bill is going to be greater than one which is titriffic) and having to write-off a customer bankruptcy (which is just not good, no way to make that shit funny). The company earned $.40 per share last year on lower revenue but margins are down this year as the company tries to expand. The point is, if they can continue to grow in the 15% to 20% range and better manage their cost structure, it is possible they could earn $.50 per share next year (depending on how one wants to estimate their tax rate given that they are an Israeli company and the tax rate seems to be as predictable as where the afikomen will be hidden at passover) and thus are trading at only 16x that which is not terribly expensive, especially as ~20% of their market cap is in cash. Their technology/algorithms are supposed to be the best out there and eventually someone will buy this company, so if the stock continues to sell off and drops into the $6s, Money McBags will think long and hard about buying (though he will also think long and hard about buying this).
Anyway, if Money McBags had the time to put out a full column (though um, he just dropeed ~1k words on a supposed day off, so fuck him), that is what he would have written about, only with more references to great authors (such as Fante, Bolano, and the guy who wrote this), more metaphors than Britney Spears has chins, and a fuckload more Malene Espensen. Money McBags will likely be back tomorrow with a full column, but be sure to follow him during the day on the twitter because he has been smitten with that medium of late (and smitten with this medium too) and now tweets out a few one-liners during the day.
4/14/10 Midafternoon Report: Market movin’ on up, only a matter of time before it buys a dee-luxe apartment in the sky
Oh shit, it is on today like fucking Donkey Kong only this time Mario is not only going to save the Princess but he’s going to get rich while doing so. The market is rallying like it’s 1999 with positive earnings, positive macro data, and not a fucking peep out of those Greek assholes who keep trying to fuck things up by going bankrupt (You hear that Greece? Stay the fuck away from the market, put your hands on the car, and assume the position). On the day before tax day, the market is making investors forget about the dough they are handing over to Uncle Sam and instead focusing them on the dough they will have to hand over to Uncle Sam next year with all of their oh so sweet gains. Ahh, to be young and invested. The rally today was sparked by earnings from JPM and INTC who treated earnings like it was a cup and they were the two girls (and if you don’t get that reference and have a very strong stomach and lenient internet rules, Money McBags begrudgingly recommends you google “two girls one cup,” but don’t say he didn’t warn you). Along with positive earnings, macro data was so good Ben Bernanke was seen taking it out to lunch, playing a little footsie with it under the table, and then inviting it back to his hotel for a little regression analysis to make sure it was heteroskedastic.
US retail sales were up 1.6% in March over the previous month and up 7.4% from March of 2009 which beat economists’ guesses. The beat was driven by car sales which were up 6.8% thanks to incentives such as tax breaks, low financing, and taint massages by Kelly Brook. Even with unemployment stuck at 9.7% like Keely Shaye Smith in a mudslide, consumers are spending because that is what they do. When the AIDS scare hit the porn scene in the 1980s, did that stop great films from being made? Maybe for a bit but now 20+ years later we’re back to bareback ATM films with no worries by the performers about diseases. This is just like consumers coming back after the recession and levering up again because daddy needs his 60 inch tv. People have short memories (and Money McBags’ short memories are mostly of He Ping Ping) and are generally optimistic so good news spurs them to repeat behaviors that may not be optimal for them in the long run. In other macro news, the CPI was up only.1% and was flat excluding food and energy (or you know, the things you actually need). The lack of an increase in CPI bodes well for the Federal Reserves’ plan to keep interest rates low for an “extended period” as inflation looks like it will be pushed out for another few quarters until investors can actually finish counting all of the cash the US government printed (you all remember Money McBags’ “Too big to count” hypothesis). The one small turd in the punchbowl today was that mortgage applications fell for the second straight week as people seem content to live in their current abodes and the game of flipping houses has finally passed like a painful kidney stone, Mickey Roarke’s comeback, or one piece bathing suits.
On top of the good macro news, Bernanke was getting his Fed on today in front of Congress by saying that he doesn’t plan to change any policy decisions but the recovery may be moderate due to high and prolonged unemployment, low construction demand, the poor fiscal condition of state and local governments, and Rasheed Wallace. Bernanke was quoted as saying about borrowing that “The decline in large part reflects sluggish loan demand and the fact that many potential borrowers no longer qualify for credit, both results of a weak economy.” Luckily, banks have shorter memories than investors and it is only a matter of months before FICO 560 people are once again getting $500k loans to buy houses in states they don’t work at variable interest rates. But hey, until then, rally on!!!!!!!
In stock news, JP Morgan beat estimates, grew income by 55%, and raised their outlook for the year. So fuck you right in the ear recession, you hear that (though maybe you won’t hear it with a dick in your ear)? JPM earned $.74 per share which was $.10 above analyst guesses and revenue was $28.2B, ~$2B above guesses of $26.5B. While JPM’s retail bank and customer card businesses are still struggling a bit, the investment bank blew it out thanks to strong fixed income trading. And if a weak retail business and strong fixed income trading don’t bode well for the economy, then Money McBags didn’t learn anything over these past few years. Oh wait, trading profits and a fuckshit consumer are exactly what got us in to this situation, ugh. But I guess there is something to say about the classics. CEO Jamie Dimon did say that “We continued to see delinquencies stabilize, and in some cases improve, in our credit portfolios,” which is a good sign, but then he added “and if they don’t stabilize, we’ll just create some complex products to trade with other banks and further boost our illusory profits.” While Chase card may have struggled, at least the bad loans have been siphoned off into a holding company to separate the risk and to hopefully make investors forget about what happened and just concentrate on Chase’s growth portfolio which won’t need to be put in to it’s own holding tank, until it does. In other stock news INTC crushed their quarter with eps coming in at $.43 which was well above last year’s $.11 eps and revenue was up $3B to $10B. They also announced strong revenue guidance, an improving gross margin, and they will be hiring 1k to 2k people which will be their first new hires in 5 years, so take that unemployment rate. INTC’s Q was so good that Money McBags may have to take it in to the bathroom and have a little time for himself with it while thinking about INTC’s motherboards which are so sexy they can be considered MBILFs. Finally Apple announced that they are going to delay the iPad launch outside of the US because demand in the US has been stronger than the demand for accutane in Jessica Simpson‘s house or the female condom in Britney Spears‘ house.
In small cap news, AAPL’s strong demand for the iPad could bode well for CRUS if CRUS actually has a chip in the iPad like they do the iPhone. The stock is reacting well today to the INTC blow out quarter and potentially the iPad news. Money McBags thinks they can earn $.73 next year but assumes only 12% topline growth so if their energy business can continue to come back and if their audio business just slows down a little from their current 80% growth rate, that number should be surpassed easier than a 3rd grader surpasses Kim Kardashian‘s reading level. The stock is now near $10, and remember Money McBags has been talking about CRUS since 1/12/10 when it was trading just under $8 and he mentioned he bought some on 1/29/10 when it had fallen below $7, so a >40% gain in 2+ months isn’t too bad. Money McBags hopes you all joined him on this ride and have been able to take your lady friends (or man friends) out to many lobster tail and bj dinners. That said, they have $2 in cash so they are really trading at ~10x Money McBags admittedly cautious estimate for this year which is pretty fucking cheap for a company that sells a chip to the biggest fucking electronics seller/fad in the Universe. Also, JOEZ is rallying today after the huge sell off from their earnings. Money McBags is still on the sidelines here for reasons he has laid out over the past few days. Basically, if you’re in the market today you can’t lose, like flipping a two headed coin, having your brother be the Governor of the state you need to win in a contested election, or being Alexis Texas in a great ass contest. One stock that is down which Money McBags is going to start looking in to again is CKSW which produces the best logistics/scheduling software for fleets. The company announced a 15MM share shelf offering today which is really fucking odd since they only have 30MM shares outstanding so this would be hella dilutive if they actually went through with the full offering. Money McBags is going to look more in to this over the next few days as the company apparently has the best software, but a shelf like that is more perplexing than Jennifer Love Hewitt‘s career or an Amish computer camp.
2/3/10 Midafternoon Report: Market seeking direction like troubled teen in ABC afterschool special, though with less crying and less Meredith Baxter Birney
The market is mostly lower today despite some moderately postive macro reports (moderately positive in the way that learning you have syphilis is moderately more positive than learning you have nut cancer). The ISM said the service industry expanded in January for the first time in three months, which may be one reason RICK is bouncing back today since they provide the type of service into which all industries should be expanding. While the ISM’s index for the service industry rose to a whopping 50.5 (and again, for those of you playing at home, anything above 50 signals growth, so 50.5 signals about as much growth as Ben Bernanke’s cranium follicles), it was slightly below analyst estimates. Also, ADP came out with their job data for January showing only 22k jobs had been cut which was inline with forecasts and the smallest drop in two years which is good news for everyone but those 22k people who lost their jobs or the 15MM or 20MM (what’s 5MM among friends) people who remain unemployed.
In world news, the EU is getting all up in Greece’s souvlaki telling Greece that they are ok with the deficit reduction plan but will be watching them closer than a 25 year old virgin watches the lovely Amanda Seyfried at a movie premier (and as an aside, Money McBags had never heard of the delightful Ms. Seyfried until yesterday but he will now be investigating her full body of work which we can all assume is spanktacular. Unexpectedly finding this charming young lass is like finding that that undervalued small cap stock with no analyst coverage, growing at 40%, and trading at less than 4x cash flow). The EU commissioner for economic and monetary affairs called the Greek government’s objectives and targets “ambitious” but”“achievable.” He added, “every time we observe slippages we will ask the Greek authorities to adopt additional measures such as putting less tzatzki sauce on their gyros, conserving water by showering only twice a month instead of their usual three times, and allowing Maria Menounos to man the Athens welcome center kissing booth.”
In stock news, investors are getting less confident in the market with the expectations that the market will fall 10% or more at its highest level since 1984 according to a survey of investment writers. Of course those investment writers also thought 2008 would be a banner year for the S&P, Dewey would defeat Truman, and Fermat’s last thereom would go unsolved (hey guys, all you had to do was carry the 1). Money McBags was happily not one of the writers polled because he refuses to be associated with other financial writers and their groupthink (plus there was that incident last year at the Financial Writers of America Conference involving a punch bowl and a Money McBags’ turd, so it’s not clear he is welcome anyway). Also, Time Warner and AOL both put up good quarters, just not together, as they proved that two heads are often better than one (unless the head in question is Bar Refaeli‘s, and then one is perfectly acceptable). Time Warner not only beat estimates, but they raised their dividend thanks to strength in their film and cable business which was able to provide a boost for continuing publishing declines (why buy an investment magazine when you can read Money McBags for free?). AOL’s earnings were $.01 per share, though their revenue shrunk by 17% because people don’t use fucking dial-up internet service anymore. Jeesh. To diversify out of the dial-up business, AOL is said to be working on an updated abacus (featuring different colored beads), tins for dageurreotypes, and a re-invention of the wheel (they are apparently making it square).
In small cap news, HDIX (aptly named H sucks a DIX by Money McBags who owned them for a while last year) is up 89% on a buyout proposal from a Japanese company named Nipro (or as it’s pronounced in the US, Nipple). HDIX makes cheap over the counter diabetes blood test readers that sell for less than half the price of competitor’s products and work just as well. It was that thesis that led Money McBags to buy the stock last year as the recession should have caused people to trade down, of course it was HDIX’s shitty performance that caused Money McBags to sell well before today’s payoff. In other news, CKSW is down after their inline Q though guidance was for slighly above street revenue estimates for 2010. Money McBags has yet to fully go through their quarter but the sell-off is likely because license revenue did not grow. That said, their book to bill was greater than 1 (and book to bill is a strong leading indicator of future performance, like packs of unopened condoms at the beginning of a gang bang), they are forecasting near 20% growth, and are trading at 16x or so 2010 earnings or 3x revenues. The company isn’t terribly cheap, but they are growing, their fleet optimization software is supposed to be the best in the business, and they have a burgeoning partnership with SAP to deliver this software. Money McBags will look in to their Q a bit more tonight, but this is another watch list stock for all of you out there because they have a market leading technology in a growing market and a huge partner (SAP). This smells more of an acquisition candidate than Paris Hilton smells of AIDS.