Posts tagged NBER
9/20/10 Midevening Report: NBER said recession ended 15 months ago, also said they saw Elvis and found the G-Spot
The market melted up to a four month high today as technical levels were tripped after investors dropped some funny looking mushrooms in to the market’s salad, President Obama had an hour long town hall on CNBC where he assured investors that his administrations’ actions have stabilized the markets (though as always, it depends on what one’s definition of “stabilized” is), and according to NBER (the less radical, and slightly more refined wing of NAMBLA) the recession is not only officially over but it has been over since June of 2009. So party fucking on my friends, party on.
You should all go out and lever up your houses (what, you can’t get a HELOC because your mortgage is more upside down than a lovely young lady practicing the very difficult standing 69?), load up the remains of your 401k (you know what’s left over from the crash and from having to tap in to it to buy necessities such as food, clothing, and Kim Kardashian Playboy issue) in to a nice triple long financial ETF like FAS, and cruise over to your local Bugatti dealer and trade in your beat up Schwinn 3-speed for a Veyron because the recession ended over a year ago so you have some profligate spending to do to catch up. Most importantly, feel free to call up one of the 20MM unemployed people and tell them they are simply being a bunch of lazy asshats with all of their crying about “no one is hiring” this and “they say my skills are eroding” that because why would NBER lie? Come on people, when was the last time a group of economists were wrong about anything (and the recent global financial collapse doesn’t count)? Anyway, now that the NBER has finally ruled that the recession ended months ago, Money McBags eagerly awaits them to let us know when the depression will be over (and Money McBags wrote that line before toggling over to Zerohedge and seeing they wrote just about the exact same thing, so it is what it is).
The only real macro news today was that despite the recession having ended 15 months ago, homebuilder sentiment remains worse than the US’ intelligence about Iraq’s WMDs or a Mike Tyson love poem (“You have a great smile, and big titties too, I won’t eat your kids, or even rape you. Well, unless you say no. You hear that bitch?”). The homebuilder sentiment index remains at a low of 13 with anything under 50 meaning sentiment is poor and anything under 20 meaning sentiment is Randy Quaid poor. More interestingly, 87% of the responders said foreclosures are negatively affecting the market while the other 13% didn’t say anything since they were too busy licking the windows of their short bus.
Despite the negative homebuilder sentiment, homebuilders actually led the market up on the strength of LEN posting a better than guessed at quarter where they saw orders drop by only 15%, So woo fucking hoo, business is only getting a shitload worse and not a fuckload worse. After stripping out tax effects, insurance recoveries, and common sense, LEN earned ~$.07 per share which bested street guesses by $.01 and was enough to send the stock up 9% allowing shorts more room to make profit.
DFS also charged their way to a decent Q with earnings beating guesses and charge-offs somehow dropping from ~8% to 7.18%, yet their credit card portfolio fell by ~5% as the pool of people with acceptable credit shrivels up like Jimmy Carter‘s nut sac (though without the peanuty smell). With growth slowing for DFS, they acquired C’s student loan portfolio last week and somehow think they are going to cross sell credit cards to that portfolio which on a scale of 1 to horrible ideas is somewhere around investing in Candwiches and hiring Wesley Snipes to do your taxes. Money McBags knows a lot about lending business and has never liked DFS’ portfolio or risk controls but he can tell you one thing of which he is absolutely sure, acquiring loan portfolios for growth in businesses that aren’t your core competence in the lending space is a sure way to fuck things up. Money McBags has no idea about valuation because he’ll never own a lending company but if you want that kind of exposure, either buy AXP or buy MA or V and get the fucking transaction network without the charge-offs.
In other market news, Office Depot was up 10% after an upgrade from Janney as the analyst apparently claimed that run down shitty stores are back in style (and if you go to an Office Depot anytime soon, you’ll know what Money McBags means, but as a warning, try not to touch anything and bring plenty of Purell and most of all make sure you have somewhere fun to go afterwards because Office Depot stores are more depressing than The Diary of Anne Frank or Hanna Hilton‘s retirement, and not necessarily in that order). Finally NZ was up on a takeout offer from IBM as the big guys continue to flaunt their ample balance sheets and buy the fuck out of smaller tech companies since as Money McBags has said here many times, “investing for growth” is now more outdated than epic poetry and parachute pants.
In small cap news everything was up today so congratulations if you were net long. With technical levels being tripped on the upside, heavily shorted, low volume small caps should outperform as the market isn’t about fundamentals, it’s about HFTs triggering movement based on lunar tides, random number generators, and the depth of Olivia Munn’s cleavage. Case and point is EBIX, a company which Money McBags has written about many times and a company he has recommended that you stay farther away from than an unprotected and ejaculating Magic Johnson (especially if you have a gaping open wound). The company’s business plan is more confusing than Immanuel Kant’s refutation and then proof of the existence of God or Kelly McGillis claiming she is a lesbian and then seemingly marrying a dude. That said, the stock has been slowly rising over the past few days and shot up today on no news. Last month, Money McBags said this about EBIX:
“Money McBags isn’t going anywhere near this company as it is either a 2 to 3 bagger or a negative 1 bagger from here, but if you want to make money, a long options straddle position in this stock isn’t a bad idea (though nowhere near as good as a long straddle position in Sofia Vergara‘s stock).”
And he is sticking with that because this company is either completely fraudulent (and again, they change auditors more frequently than Paris Hilton changes her diaphram) or more undervalued than Minka Kelly, so straddle away, especially as volatility should start to increase in the next few days with technical levels having been passed.