Posts tagged ULTA
9/3/10 Midafternoon Report: Inconceivable! Money McBags does not think jobs report means what market thinks it means
Oh no you didn’t. The monthly jobs report came out today and destroyed analyst guesses of 41k private sector jobs created by coming in with a headline ~67k private sector jobs created, so break open the bubbly and call the Mrs. (or Mr. for Money McBags’ female, or vagina-challenged, readers) because with a report that good, we’re going out for a night on the town. Afterall, only 14.9MM people remain unemployed (6.2MM longterm employed and and 8.7MM pre-longterm unemployed) with 2.4MM people remaining marginally attached to the workforce (and marginally attached in the same way that Ellen Degeneres’ lips are ever marginally attached to a ding dong) so what is not to like about private sector job growth beating analyst guesses? It’s not like the unemployment rate went up to 9.6% (while the U6 rate hit 16.7% but who cares as those extra discouraged people are just a bunch of whiners anyway so fuck them), or maybe it did, but that is totally irrelevant. With 67k private sector jobs added it’s time to once again buy houses you can’t afford, book those reservations for The French Laundry, and go back to making fun of the poor and unfortunate. Rally on my friends, rally on, as Happy Days are truly here again.
More than anything, Money McBags doesn’t want to be the party pooper here (as these guys seem to have cornered the market on that) or the pasties in the Megan Fox kind of NSFW not quite nude scene if you will, so he won’t mention that the economy didn’t really gain ~67k jobs, but instead LOST ~54k jobs thanks to 117k government temporary census workers being fired and 7k permanent government employees losing their jobs (which apparently included Jan Brewer‘s speech writer). And he won’t mention that of the 67k jobs added, 17k were temporary jobs where overqualified workers were reduced to filing papers which will soon all be electronic anyway. Money McBags also won’t mention that of the 19k construction jobs added, 10k were just workers who had been on strike in July going back to their old jobs (yep, it’s in the data) after no doubt striking due to being overworked as a result of all of the new construction going up (and yes that was sarcasm).
Most of all though, Money McBags won’t mention the 115k jobs added by the Birth/Death model which is likely more fictitious than God (at least according to Stephen Hawking, though to be honest, if Money McBags had spent the last 30 years in a wheelchair he wouldn’t believe in God either, that said, if there were no God, how would one explain this?). Anyway, for those of you who remain unfamiliar with the B(L)S’ Birth/Death model (and as always the “L” in BLS is in parentheses because it is silent), it is a bigger black box than that of Montana Fishburne and is supposed to estimate new businesses opened or closed not captured by the B(L)S survey. It does this through the use of a “probability-based sample design and estimator” (their words, not Money McBags’), fortune cookies, and whatever B(L)S Commissioner Keith Hall tells his analysts to manually input. While the 115k is not supposed to be additive to the numbers, it is somehow folded in to the manipulated 67k new jobs, like a chicken leg folds in to one of Kirstie Alley‘s fat rolls. But again, Money McBags doesn’t want to mention any of that and instead would prefer to think about the 67k new jobs added (or 40k when one subtracts out the 17k temporary jobs and the 10k construction workers who merely ended their strike) which puts the economy at a run rate of only ~100 more months like this (not including the 121k government jobs lost) until we can return to the outdated perception of a normal unemployment rate, and really, what’s a mere ~8-9 years among friends?
For those of you keeping score at home (and now would be the time to turn off chatroulette, zip up your pants, and sharpen your pencils), Money McBags went to the B(L)S website (which his ISP has surprisingly not blocked even though it is more harmful to society than animal porn) and took the data from the Employment Situation Summary Table B (the “B” of course standing for “Bwahhahahahaha”) and reproduced the jobs numbers in a more meaningful table below. As you can see, the economy lost between ~53k and ~168k jobs last month depending on how you interpret the Birth/Death model plug (and Money McBags chooses to interpret it in the dead language of Cayuse).
|Government Jobs||Change in Jobs #|
|Govt Temp/Full-time Plug||(7,000)|
|Permanent Private Sector Jobs|
|Education and Healthcare||45,000|
|Leisure and Hospitaility||13,000|
|Total Permanent Private Sector||51,000|
|Temporary Private Sector Jobs||16,800|
|Total Headline Jobs #||(53,200)|
|Birth/Death Model Plug||115,000|
|Actual Jobs #||(53,200) to (168,200)|
The only other macro news is that the ISM showed the service sector slowed and was below analyst guesses but on a day when the economy manipulatedly added 67k jobs, who the fuck cares about a declining service sector?
In the market today, financials rallied led by GS (and Money McBags is not lost on the irony of a company who never saw a number it couldn’t manipulate rising on the manipulated jobs data of today, it’s a bit like RICK rising every time Heidi Montag gets more plastic surgery) while Campbell’s Soup cooled off despite beating estimates due to operating efficiencies after weak guidance and disappointing revenue.
In small cap news TTWO and ULTA put up big Qs and rocketed up today. Money McBags doesn’t follow TTWO but he once spent time looking at ULTA and ultimately (alliteration intended) decided that cosmetics are about as discretionary of a purchase as one can make (other than candwiches and for pop singers, underwear). If Money McBags remembers correctly, ULTA basically sells cheap down market, yet brand name cosmetics, in off mall locations. They grew revenue 11% and guided to higher earnings for next Q so perhaps there is a middle class trade down play here or perhaps cosmetics are just really inelastic for females who are constantly bombarded by images like this or this so feel like they need to keep up. Money McBags wouldn’t buy anything up 20% on the day, and his gut tells him this is probably a short, but without having done enough research on it, he will hold back an opinion. Perhaps next week he will be able to take a closer look at it (though with any luck, he’ll also be able to take a closer look at Lara Bingle).
So enjoy the weekend and the start of college football.