Posts tagged URBN
Kind readers, you’ll have to excuse Money McBags today for not being able to put up a full column but you see, as you were all buying the dip and rejoicing over OPEC’s promise to produce the shit out of more oil for the first time in two years (which surely made M. King Hubberd roll over in his energy efficient grave and fans of the Double Down breath a sigh of relief), feeling better about home sales picking up as prices decline (though Money McBags isn’t clear that falling home prices being the driver of sales is good thing, it’s a bit of a Pyrrhic victory, like being adopted but learning you were adopted in to the Brown family (and not just because of the music)), and vociferously supporting the Top Free movement, Money McBags was curled up in the fetal position both feeling sicker and heaving up more bile than James Brolin on his wedding night. Between last week’s bout with the shits and today’s run in with the mouth shits, Money McBags has been struggling. The good news is that he is feeling better right now, the bad news is that he isn’t going to be able to write a full column (though shit didn’t happen today so no big fucking deal), and the best news is that he discovered the lovely Natalia Vodianova.
As for macro news, today was quieter than Cloris Leachman’s uterus except for Nouriel Roubini finding the punchbowl just in time to drop a turd in it by saying if oil hits $140, it will cause a new double dip. Now look, Money McBags isn’t a gloom and doom economist, rather he is a gloom and doom dick joke writer, but saying that $140 oil will cause some countries to fall back in to a recession is as controversial as saying smoking will cause cancer or Marisa Miller will cause awesomeness. As long as Roubini wants to play the obvious game, why not point out the other things that will cause a fall back in to recession (not that we ever jumped out of it) include rising unemployment, continued inflation, and the release of Izabel Goulart nude photos (because that will drop productivity by at least 80%).
The only data that came out was that home sales accelerated a bit as the median price for a U.S. existing home fell to ~$159k which is the lowest since 2002 which was before the wave of securitizations that allowed liar loans and speculation to become more widespread than bad grammar or Tori Black‘s legs on a pay day. Prices have fallen for seven consecutive months, are 31% below their 2006 peak, and will likely continue to drop as foreclosures and shadow inventory cause supply to outstrip demand as if it were Rima Fakih on the main stage.
In the market, banks led the way up as BAC said they will cut costs to increase profits (and based on history, the cost cuts will be loan reserves, so look out below) and the company estimates that in a few years after they are done cleaning up from the mortgage mess, they could earn $35B to $40B a year, which is weird, because Money McBags estimates that in a few years BAC will still be a piece of shit. M&A talk around Sprint Nextel and Deutsche Telekom (as opposed to T&A talk around Kelly Brook and Riley Steele) fueled optimism that buyouts will continue to push the market higher than Charlie Sheen’s breath. And NFLX tumbled again, this time on news that Facebook may begin streaming videos with Warner Brothers and that companies shouldn’t trade for a Bernankity times earnings. Of course the sound you just heard was Whitney Tilson’s prostate bursting from the deep assfucking he just received, but he did prove that having gaydar isn’t the only way to call a top.
In earnings URBN was down 16% on a weak Q as margins got compressed as they had to discount the shit out of their skinny jeans which finally went out of style, MCD announced 3.9% global same store sales growth despite getting passed by Subway as the world’s largest restaurant chain and Kathy Griffin’s face as the world’s largest cause of heart attacks, and Dicks grew quickly for investors as the company rose ~7% after beating estimates thanks to continued strong penetration of the online segment.
In small cap news, after taking it in the yingus yesterday, Money McBags’ names jumped the fuck up because again, they are a bit higher beta than the market. On a day to day basis, Money McBags doesn’t really give a shit about his names because he doesn’t own anything that is overly expensive and doesn’t have solid growth trends behind them so their macro-based volatility matters to Money McBags as much as Smith Barney matters to Morgan Stanley. That said, company specific news does matter and yesterday RICK announced they were buying another club in Minneapolis (hence keeping the twins in the Twin Cities) for ~310k lap dances. The club is located around the corner from a current Rick’s Cabaret and that kind of clustering allows them to cut down on operating costs while providing twice the tits for their customers. The best part is that the deal is going to be immediately accretive so should add to Money McBags’ ~.044 lap dance per share earnings guess for the year. Money McBags believes there is still ~10% easy upside here before you want to think about taking profits so enjoy being a shareholder while the going should still be good.
Writer’s note: This was supposed to be a short column because Money McBags feels like Amy Winehouse looks, but shit, he just dropped almost 1k words so don’t ever say Money McBags doesn’t love you.