1/3/11 Midnight Report: Just Another Panic Monday for Shorts, Will Tomorrow be Their Funday?
The market ran today like Ben Bernanke was giving out free money (which um, he kind of is, as long as you have already proven that you are untrustworthy and have bad judgment), or giving out free shares of Facebook (which at this rate will be valued higher than an original copy of Birds of America, a dozen Faberge eggs, or Jessica Hall’s vulva, when they go public) as investors rejoice in the new year as if the new year were 1997. So we’ve now gone from “rally” to “FUCKING RALLY” because what goes up, doesn’t come down (except for some birds in Arkansas, an erection after seeing Kathy Griffin in a bikini, and well, everything fucking else in the world).
But who cares because with a spree of relatively positive macro data, investors are willing to ignore that the unemployment rate is 10% (~18% including the discouraged, the beaten down, and the people who green lighted the Tron sequel), that the average stock ownership lasts just 22 seconds (or twice the time Money McBags would last with Kelly Brook), and that the dollar doesn’t buy what it used to anymore (except for dong, because one can currently buy a fuckload of dong for a dollar, which explains why Tom Cruise doesn’t work as much). Investors are willing to throw money in to the market because their memories are shorter than the line for handshakes will be at Thomas Hoenig’s upcoming retirement party. But great, really, with common sense now about as useful as Zsa Zsa Gabor’s leg (or her uterus), let the capitulation begin, just remember that capitulation isn’t just an anagram for “Anal pic I tout.” If the market can get back to 1500 with 10% unemployment, then Money McBags says we need to lay a fuckload more people off because clearly there is some strange inverse correlation here.
In macro news today, the ISM’s manufacturing index for December rose to 57, which was slightly better than the 56.9 guessed by witch doctors and was the 17th consecutive month the index rose. Wow. Money McBags hasn’t seen something rise that consistently since the market for MBS CDOs right before the meltdown or Jessica Alba‘s popularity before she got married. Leading the way were faster rates of new orders, though unfortunately those new orders weren’t for jobs as factory sector employment dropped to a nine month low.
In other US macro news, construction spending rose .4%, up from a .7% gain in October, and better than the .2% gain guessed at by analysts, as stimulus spending seeks to make sure every state has at least one bridge to nowhere. Federal spending rose 8.2% with the government investing in such things as schools, office buildings, and even water supply plants (and with $35B to spend, the government no doubt went all out and installed gold-plated pipes in to these facilities to make sure all showers will be golden). Absent government spend, which is a bit like reading Dickens (or Money McBags) absent run-on sentences, judging Alan Greenspan absent his interest rate policy, or giving a critical assessment of the work of Janine Lindemulder absent Where the Boys Aren’t 10, private construction was up only .3% and local government spend was down .1%. So as long as Uncle Barack and Aunt Timmy keep getting their spending on, everything should be ok (except for the dollar and the long-term economy, but those are just minor fucking details).
Internationally, China’s manufacturing slipped a bit as the country has already produced an oversupply of pee-pee flavored Coke (and yes Money McBags is aware that he goes to that line way to often, but if you got anything better, let him know). The index fell from 55.2 to 53.9 as Premier Wen Jiabao seeks to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation and to not be such a dick.
The big news of the day was the market though as stocks shot the fuck up like they were Heath Ledger on a bender. If you owned anything, you made money today so congratulations for playing, but unfortunately with success like that, none of you win the booby prize. Financials led the way today as all of a sudden investors believe whatever banks say they put on their balance sheet (and Money McBags trusts bank balance sheets about as much as Maria Menounos trusts bikinis). Bank of America pushed financials higher after they agreed to pay a $3B settlement to FNM and FRE for selling them some bad mortgages (or what is known at Goldman Sachs as “Tuesday”). That said, there are still likely to be $8B to $35B of claims against BAC from insurers and private investors who bought tainted loans from the bank after being misled by BAC’s shitacular credit approvals on mortgages, so buyer beware.
The other big news was that Goldman invested ~$500MM in the Facebook, giving the Facebook a ~$50B valuation which is roughly equivalent to the GDP of Belarus, the personal fortune of Warren Buffett, or a week of trades by Brian Sack. The Facebook now promises to be the most overvalued thing on the internet since AOL or that fucking dancing baby shit. More importantly, with the Facebook’s cockposterous valuation, Money McBags is once again bringing to your attention that he has put the award winning When Genius Prevailed up for sale with a starting price of only $10MM. While a $10MM valuation may seem high, Money McBags can assure you it is actually quite low as it is only .02% of the value of the Facebook and if you all don’t get .02% of the enjoyment from the award winning When Genius Prevailed that you get out of the Facebook, then Money McBags is not this author’s real name. The point is, for $10MM you can have one of the hottest internet properties (though not as hot as this very very NSFW property) and not only that, but Money McBags will promise to keep running the place for the next 5ish years and will devote 100% of his time to it (and right now, Money McBags does this with only 50% of his time, so imagine how titriffic it would be with 2x the McBags). If you want to talk turkey, Money McBags is reachable at firstname.lastname@example.org, serious offers only.
Elsewhere in the market, ODP and SPLS rose strongly on upgrades from Janney which shows the preposterousness of the market since it marks the first time any stock has moved because of a Janney analyst’s recommendation. Also, BKS jumped 10% after reporting same store sales were up ~10% in the holiday season thanks to their e-reader (the awfully named Nook) and strong sales of Economics for Dummies in their South Side of Chicago book store.
In small cap stocks, pretty much everything was up led by micro cap crappy names such as NLS and LOV where shorts were likely covering as fast as their prime brokers would let them. Money McBags did start a new position today in RICK (though unfortunately that position was not a royal blumpkin) as the stock is trading at only 8x to 10x earnings despite reasonable growth and a likely strong Q coming up with the Super Bowl in Dallas as RICK has a club on every street corner in the area. With stocks at ridiculous valuations right now, RICK is one that remains reasonably priced because there is always a good deal of headline risk with the company.
That said, that stock should be worth at least $12 as Money McBags guesses the company should earn between $.83 per share and $1.00 per share next year using the same growth the company had during the recession (and Money McBags broke this all down for you after their last Q). So feel free to join Money McBags in this investment which should not only make you some money, but will also allow you to give your lady friends a new excuse for going to Rick’s besides claiming you just have a huge amygdala. It’s called hands on due diligence, what all great analysts aspire to accomplish.
|Print article||This entry was posted by Money McBags on January 4, 2011 at 12:40 am, and is filed under Daily report. Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.|
No trackbacks yet.
about 5 years ago - 7 comments
The market rallied a bit in the afternoon as rising new claims for unemployment missed analyst guesses by somewhere near a fuckton (give or take an asshair or ten), Portugal and Greece saw bond yields rocket up more than applications to LaSalle’s MBA program and even more than Kate Upton on the awesomeness scale, and
about 5 years ago - 3 comments
Dear Readers, Money McBags had a minor and planned medical procedure today (nowhere near as useful as this) that unfortunately caused him to be knocked the fuck out and while he thought he could quickly shake off the cobwebs and get out a column on KITD, he wound up spending from 2pm to ~8pm drooling
about 5 years ago - 5 comments
The big news in the market on Friday was the release of the (No) Labor Department’s NFP Jobs Report (more commonly known as the Labor Force Participation Rate Report, or fiction) which showed the ponzeconomy™ added 216k jobs in March which was enough for the administration to pat themselves on their well insured backs and head
about 5 years ago - 2 comments
The market was relatively quiet today as investors brace themselves for tomorrow’s Labor Force Participation Rate Report, Money McBags means Jobs Report, from the (No) Labor Department which will likely be more fictitious than a James Frey memoir, a Jayson Blair news story, or Ryan Seacrest’s girlfriend (at least the girlfriend who supposedly pees sitting
about 6 years ago - 2 comments
Holy fucking shit. It is not often Money McBags wakes up to such a far reaching news story (even farther reaching than Ben Bernanke’s logic) and a story of such epic proportions (even more epically proportioned than Ice-T’s wife) that it dominates the headlines more than a Presidential election, has potentially more dire consequences on
about 6 years ago - 2 comments
While there may have been a tsunami in Japan (and Money McBags heard rumors that it was caused by everything from Godzilla and Mothra learning that they had invested their savings with Bernie Madoff to a rush to the Apple stores to buy the new Hello Kitty themed iPad2), there was a spoogenami in the
about 6 years ago - 1 comment
Money McBags was out all day wearing his monkey suit to dance for the organ grinder so did he miss anything? — Holy fucking shit did the market get tossed like Gracie Glam in Whatabooty 8 thanks to new claims for unemployment claiming a lot more people are unemfuckingployed, China’s export growth slowing as Cream
about 6 years ago - 1 comment
about 6 years ago - 3 comments
The market sold off today as the Fed came out (not that there is anything wrong with that) and said that they are both for and against QE3 (which is as useful as a yersinia fecal transplant. And a quick side note on the whole fecal transplant as the new curative breakthrough but Money McBags
Economic Update: Jobs Report is Classic Case of Buy the Rumor, Sell the News (Unless the News Has A Hot Friend Who Likes 3-Somes)
about 6 years ago - 6 comments
The market bounced around a bit on Friday before closing down (something about conflict in the Middle East, spiking commodity prices, and Gabe Kaplan not showing up for the Welcome Back Kotter reunion) as investors were buying the dip, selling the rip, all while ogling the nip slip. That said, the big news of the