3/28/11 Midnight Report: Same Shit, Different Day
The market rose for most of the day like the radiation readings from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (where engineers recently found plutonium in the soil which is either from the nuclear melt down or a broken flux capacitor) until it sagged in the afternoon like Dez Bryant’s shorts (and perhaps his bank account and credibility), as investors realized that perhaps the Middle East imploding like Chris Lee’s political career, Europe figuratively sweeping their monetary problems under a rug larger than Burt Reynolds‘ thanks to Portugal’s latest downgrade, Tokyo being more of a threat to shut down than that likely assawful Spiderman musical, and AAPL reporting a bomb in one of their distrubution centers (though it turned out to just be an employee downloading a Nicolas Cage film on a company iPad), may not bode well for the ponzeconomy™. So while Larry Summers continues to pick the remnants of the economy out of his triple chin, it is important to be more careful than Fergie‘s gynecologist (because herpes are forever) as shit still sucks in the real world. Or just buy the fucking dip. Your choice.
As for US macro news, consumer spending was up .7%, though up only .2% not including food and energy so that should make the Fed happy since they continue to believe food and energy are as relevant to consumers as old man smell is to Andrea Mitchell or carding is to Lawrence Taylor (even if Fed Governor Dennis P. Lockhart wrote “…contrary to popular opinion, Fed officials actually do eat and fill up their gas tanks.“ Of course what he left out is they fill up their gas with the tears of the poor and unfortunate, so inflate away economy, inflate away). That said, the rise in consumer spend was driven by people in California loading up on geiger counters, iodine pills, and back issues of Shanna Marie Mclaughlin‘s Playboy spread, just in case the wind blows the nuclear radiation across the ocean and they are forced in to quarantine. It was the 8th consecutive month consumer spend rose, though the rise was higher than wage growth of .3% (or 0% for the 18MM+ unemployed, discouraged, and fucking discouraged workers) which caused the savings rate to contract like the soon to be readership of the NY Times.
In other macro news, pending homesales gained 2.1% in February which beat estimates of a drop of 1% (so at least analysts would have been directionally correct had they used the absolute value sign, and yes, that was sarcasm). The index is still down 8% for the year and as soon as foreclosures, shadow inventory, cardboard boxes, and Karin Mackaliunas’ vagina are off the market, which should be sometime around 20infinity, home sales should once again start to rise (and note to Ms. Mackaliunas: Really? Money McBags can almost understand the heroin, but $.22? It does beg the question of if it was 4 nickels and two pennies, 2 dimes and 2 pennies, 22 pennies, or whatever. Though perhaps she was on her way to First CityWide).
Internationally, shit is still so fucked up that even 3 year olds have taken to the drink. Portugal may be downgraded by S&P from “kind of fucked” to “just fucking collapse already,” Germany saw something called the Green Party win power in one of their States (that state of course being the state of confusion and despair), and Italy’s 74 year old prime minister still maintains he was too old for all the sex he was accused of having by claiming, he’s not 69 anymore. In addition to Europe, the Middle East is in more disarray than the Fed’s balance sheet (but shhhhhhh, don’t tell anyone about that) or Newt Gingrch’s policy stands as not only are unified forces bombing Libya in support of the rebels but Syria is getting serious about not wanting a dictator all up in their Damascuses. Syrian forces opened fire to disperse hundreds of protesters as the government discusses repealing the decades long rule of emergency just as an emergency hits, so go figure.
In the market, EBAY announced they are buying GSIG for $2.4B after waiting until the last millisecond and hitting the bid button. They are paying a 51% cash premium for GSIG after checking the seller’s ratings and now just need to wait for GSIG to open a Paypal account to deliver payment. Elsewhere, ALU was up 10% after Goldman raised them to a strong buy based on the fact that the analyst’s coin flip came up heads and GS also upgraded NOK to buy citing a run on shitty mobile companies.
Finally, Kodak was up 6% after a US trade panel agreed to rule on whether or not AAPL and RIMM are infringing on Kodak’s patents. If Kodak is successful in this case, they say they will next bring patent suits up against Borders, subprime lenders, and Mickey Rooney, for mimicking Kodak’s patented drop in to obsolescence. That said, if Kodak wins in this suit it could bring them ~$1B which should be enough to allow them to stay afloat until their next big idea fails.
In small cap news, holy fuck did shit go awry in the ~1.5 weeks Money McBags was busy doing funbagmental research on Russia (and he stresses the funbag). EBIX continues to drop after some dude got his short on on SeekingAlpha by laying out the same case Money McBags laid out months ago only instead of dick jokes and links to Teagan Presley, they used actual data. That said, their opening line was “Winston Churchill’s famous quote, “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma,” might as well have been targeting Ebix Inc” and loyal readers know on many occasions Money McBags has referred to EBIX as “enigma wrapped in a riddle and covered with feces,” so um, once again Money McBags is not only way ahead of the Street, but one of its few sources of original thought (and here is another original thought). As Money McBags said, a long straddle of EBIX is the only way to trade it since it is either complete fraud or worth a multiple of for what it is trading (with either scenario equally likely), so if you did that, congratufuckinglations.
In other small cap news COOL continues to run up and Money McBags told you about this trade less than three weeks and ~50% ago, so hopefully you all got yours. If shit works out, this company is probably worth ~$4.50 to $6.00 so there is still upside from here. That said, Money McBags never bought (as he told you) because he doesn’t get involved in shitty companies, even if good shit is going on. That said, they have one game which is currently working and launching in Europe and while it may be more of a one hit wonder than Young MC, John Kennedy Toole, and Estella Warren, it is fucking working.
Also, Money McBags knows he owes all of you a full breakout of KITD, and he hopes to accomplish that tomorrow (he also hopes to accomplish cold fusion and a rusty trombone from Lucy Clarkson, so take that for what it is worth). While KITD has sold off more than a Jose Canseco rookie card and their management continues to buy companies as if they will have unlimited access to equity markets, Money McBags still believes in owning companies who have 30%+ market share in markets growing 35%+, no matter how bizarre of a company it is.
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