The market was relatively quiet today as investors brace themselves for tomorrow’s Labor Force Participation Rate Report, Money McBags means Jobs Report, from the (No) Labor Department which will likely be more fictitious than a James Frey memoir, a Jayson Blair news story, or Ryan Seacrest’s girlfriend (at least the girlfriend who supposedly pees sitting down).

That said, even with unheard of negative geopolitical unrest as the Middle East goes through more changes than Chaz Bono, unknown long-term effects of Japan’s nuclear meltdown as low levels of radiation now seep in to US milk making it potentially the second most harmful milk additive after Strawberry Quick, and unconscionable short-term effects of the just released NSFW Kathy Griffin topless pics which caused onlookers to go all Raiders of the Lost Ark, the market remains unflappable so a negative Jobs Report will likely be ignored more than Harry Markopolos by the SEC or full disclosure by the Polyamorous one’s heir to the reasonably priced and bought on discount throne.  So while Money McBags is going to drop another ~1k words on the market today and likely another 1.5k-2k tomorrow on the Labor Force Participation Report, fell free to just click on the pics, enjoy National Cleavage Day and buy the fucking dip, because data and thoughtful analysis matter as much in this market as brevity mattered to Tolstoy or panties matter to Yana Gupta (shout out to all the readers in India, can Money McBags get a क्या क्या).

As for macro news, initial claims for unemployment benefits were released and they either dropped 6k from the upwardly revised 394k, or they rose 6k from the downwardly reported 382k of last week, depending on which made up number you choose to use as your frame of reference in the latest version of the government’s “Hold the shock and hope for no awe strategy” where data is more relative than an Alabama resident’s family tree.  Basically, this week’s number was the Andy Dick of (No) Labor Department data as it can go either way.  That said, this strong (or weak) number follows ADP’s March payroll data that said the economy added ~200k jobs, though sifting through the fine print of the ADP data, it turns out half of those jobs were for unicorn trainers, alchemists, and buttfors (and if you don’t know what a buttfor is, it’s for shitting), so as always, it is hard to trust the numbers.


In other news, factory orders fell .1% which was the first drop in 3 months and only an absolute value sign and a forecastable data set away from economist guesses of a .5% rise.  Also, the Chicago ISM index fell from a 22 year high of 71.2 in February to 70.6 in March (and for a business barometer to be at a 22 year high in this ponzeconomy™, it must ingesting some of Charlie Sheen’s second hand smoke).  The most interesting part of the data is that the employment component which likely includes future assumptions rose to 65.6 which is the highest level it has been since 1983 but the optimism was likely driven by the start of the baseball season which is the time of year when Chicagoans become most positively deluded.

There was also something released today called the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index which rose for the first time in 5 weeks to -46.9, so whoopee that some made up index that Money McBags cares about as much as he cares about feelings, Donald Trump’s birth certificate, or that Dancing with Stars program, went up to a lower negative number.  Oh wait, what’s that?  The made up number indicates a recession?  Now Money McBags knows it is fictitious because if rising input prices (and this is one input for which Money McBags would pay any price), 15%+ real unemployment, and slow wage growth signal recession, then Money McBags isn’t his real name (and yes that was sarcasm).

Finally, the Fed released discount window loan records and it turns out that in 2007 BofA tapped the Fed’s discount window more frequently than Money McBags would tap this ass (though with less effervescence).  Bloomberg News reporters received two CD-ROMs with the data, each containing an identical set of 894 PDF files, a character profile for an elf in World of Warcraft named Berspankme, and 7 MP3 files, all of the song Friday.  As to the release of the records, JPM Chief Criminal in Charge Jamie Dimon said “I think it will make it harder for people to use the discount window in the future,” to which Money McBags responds “Good.”  See, here’s the fucking deal, the discount window isn’t a fucking toy and if a bank is fucked enough to have to use it:  1.  Fuck them for sucking at their jobs.  2.  Investors should know what is going on since bank financials are more manipulated than Newt Gingrich’s twitter account so knowing a bank is using the discount window provides INFORFUCKINGMATION to the market.  and 3.  If Money McBags wanted to hear from an asshole, he would have farted, so kindly go back to bilking investors in the quiet of your own gold encrusted office.

As for international news Libyan foreign minister Moussa Koussa defected (and Money McBags can’t figure out if Moussa Koussa sounds like a rejected Dr. Seuss Character (And today Moussa Koussa, the marvelous defectee, ran away from Libya, and that cockrod Qadaffi), or the product of a smurf and an oompa loompa fucking), as NATO heads up the US’s support of Libyan rebels as a way to make sure we get our fucking oil.

Meanwhile, Europe’s recovery showed prices rising and weaker consumption, because, um, that is what happens when prices rise, people generally consume less as their fiat currency becomes more worthless than Wells Fargo debit rewards or script writing advice from M. Night Shyamalan.  The problem in Europe (other than that whole hygiene thing) is that the recovery is more uneven than Halle Berry’s chest as Germany continues to at least tread water as their unemployment rate dropped to 7.1% which is the lowest since reunification while Portugal sinks as their deficit continues to get more out of hand than Nekiva Hardy at a Burger King (but to be fair, the fries were cold).

Today Portugal reported a budget deficit of 8.6% of GDP for 2010 which was well above their 7.3% target and they blamed it on changes in accounting rules such as being required to report both credits and debits, to do away with coin flips when marking to market, and to discontinue the use of floating decimal points.  As a result of the outsized deficit, investors sent yields on Portugal’s 10 year bonds to new highs, which is going to make it a fuckton harder for Portugal to continue to ponzi scheme their way out of their fiscal issues (and perhaps they should auction off Liliana Queiroz with their next bond issuance to drum up demand).

In the market, not much really happened except Microsoft filed an antitrust case against GOOG, which is like the pot calling the kettle black, Nouriel Roubini calling someone a bit of a curmudgeon, or Camille Crimson calling someone a cumguzzler.

As for small caps, Money McBags wanted to point out WGO again as their valuation makes less sense than Abercrombie and Fitch’s product choices. WGO announced their quarterly results last week while Money McBags was on hiatus (more on that soon, as rumors continue to fly across the internet and Money McBags promises to address them) and it sucked more dick than George Michael in lock-up.  As Money McBags has been saying, their revenue growth is done since dealers have now restocked and sure as fuck, revenue was down 4%.  But it’s not just that, as dealer inventories remain elevated as they were up 7% even though WGO deliveries were down 18% and if you do the math, that means shit is not good.  But here is the kicker, they earned a headline $.11 eps but said that:

“the second quarter of Fiscal 2011 was positively impacted by the results of the annual physical inventory of work-in-process recorded during the quarter, due to lower actual inventory scrap and production loss than recent historical experience, which had the effect of increasing gross profit and inventories by $3.5 million”

So if we take that $3.5MM out of gross margin, all of a sudden operating income drops to ~$550k and that flows down to $.02 in eps.  Yep, 2 fucking cents which is inline with last year and taking out the one-timers from last Q, means they have earned $.12 per share in the last 6 months.  So even if they somehow double earnings in the next six months (though with flat revenues, overstocked dealers, rising gas prices, and morons going to jail, that is less likely than a fat chick not swallowing), that would put them at a $.33 annual eps and the company is trading at 41x that.  No really, Money McBags is not making any of this up.  Shit, Money McBags wouldn’t even pay 40x for something as ridonkulous as Groupon even if all they were offering were coupons for 98% off tug jobs at the World Famous Mitchell Brothers’ O’Farrell Theatre.

Money McBags is holding to his $7.50 generous price target on WGO even though all it has done is go up on him.  The fact is, not only do the numbers not support valuation, but neither does the fucking economy.  Seriously, what fucking cockknocker is going to lever up to buy a gas guzzler with the Middle East in upheaval and gas prices shooting up like Barry Bonds in a contract year?  The valuation is cockposterous as there is more of a disconnect between price and value than there is between Ben Bernanke’s interpretation of inflation and M2, but the good news is, there is plenty of money to be made by shorting here.

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