Economic update

Economic Update: Market tells the economy “we don’t need no stinking jobs”

To the tick tock and the market doesn’t stop, as even though the jobs report continued to color the economy bad, the shit awful numbers signal that Benny B is going to come in and sex the market up with QE2, so rally on my friends, rally fucking on (and yes, the rally makes about as much sense as Money McBags’ using a shitacular 1990s song for an extended metaphor, but alas, not every analogy on the award winning When Genius Prevailed can end with Taylor Rain going 5-hole, or can it?).

The point is that taking the promise of QE2 out of the equation, the jobs report was not just worse than analysts guessed (and as always, Money McBags cares what analysts guess about as much as he cares about the Tony Awards, Kathy Griffin‘s sex life, or the 69th decimal of pi (which for the record is 6) because their models are fatter tailed and more outdated than Jessica Simpson’s jeans), and didn’t just feature another revised worse number from last month (53k job losses are now 57k), but in absolute terms it was about as positive as a Bea Arthur pregnancy test (and not because she is dead and thus has no uterus, but because she was a man).

Some of the high/lowlights include:

1.  Only 64k private sector jobs were created, of which 17k were temporary.

2.  159k government jobs were lost and while people may want to ignore the 77k lost census jobs (though as far as Money McBags can tell, that does mean 77k more people will be looking for work, but whatever), they can’t ignore that 76k+ job losses were full time teachers, meter maids, and glory hole procurers.  Look, this is a big fucking problem that we have seen for 3 months now as state and local governments are starting to go more bankrupt than John Edwards’ morals.  As the lovely Meredith Whitney recently warned (and Meredith, when you read this, just know that Money McBags would be happy to get you in a reverse power bomb if that is what you are in to because as always he finds you delightful), the federal government may need to bail out state and local governments in the next twelve months which is really going to be some shit.

3.  The unemployment rate fell by .1% to 9.6% as a result of the usual funky math, but the more important rate, which includes people who have stopped looking for work as they have become more discouraged than Gilgamesh or Tina Yothers‘ agent (which is 1.2MM people, up 500k from last year) and people who have taken part-time jobs as filing clerks, tour guides, and jizz moppers because they can’t find full time work, rose to 17.1% from 16.7%.  So look to the house on your right, look to the one on your left, and then look to the ones in front of and behind you and if they are not all vacant due to having been foreclosed upon, statistically one of them (including you) has an unemployed/underemployed person in it.

4.  Along those same lines, part time workers were up 612k to 9.5MM and are now up 943k in the last two months because people either had their hours cut back, couldn’t find full time jobs and had to settle, or decided they would rather work fewer hours so they could have enough time at home to fully digest the Karissa Shannon sex tape.

5.  The B(L)S (and as regular readers know, the L is in parentheses because it is silent) birth/death model which is a bigger black box than that of Nyomi Banxxx surprisingly only somehow added 11k jobs to the numbers (and the B(L)S says that number isn’t additive, but know that it does something to make the numbers look slightly better, like putting lipstick on a pig or a piece of lettuce on a shit sandwich).

To spare you the boredom, Money McBags went through the actual jobs report release, including the detailed B(L)S Table B, and broke out the data:

Government Jobs Change in Jobs #
Census Workers (77,000)
Govt Temp/Full-time Plug (76,000)
Plug (6,000)
Total Govt (159,000)
Permanent Private Sector Jobs
Financial Servives (1,000)
Other 7,000
Professional Services (2,900)
Information (5,000)
Transportation 9,600
Retail trade 5,700
Wholesale Trade 2,200
Education and Healthcare 17,000
Leisure and Hospitaility 38,000
Mining 5,000
Manufacturing (6,000)
Construction (21,000)
Plug (1,500)
Total Permanent Private Sector 47,100
Temporary Private Sector Jobs 16,900
Total Headline Jobs # (95,000)
Birth/Death Model Plug 11,000
Actual Jobs # (95,000) to (116,000)

So in September, 95k+ jobs were destroyed (depending on how you want to handle the birth/death model) and Money McBags just checked his long run Phillips Curve (which was nowhere near as interesting as Tara Phillips’ curves) and determined that we only need another negative 70 months like this (because multiplying a negative by a negative gets us a positive) before we are back to some Milton Friedman-esque acceptable Keynesian NAIRU for a healthy economy so as soon as we get that fucking flux capacitor fixed in the DeLorean and transport everyone back to 2004, everything will be ok.

The most troubling part of all of this is that even if one wants to discount government job losses (though why one would want to do that is as confusing to Money McBags as the existence of dark matter, Thomas Pynchon novels, or mullets), the economy needs to add ~110k private sector jobs per month just to handle all of the illegal immigrants and snotty college kids joining the labor force so at the current pace of 64k jobs added per month (-11kish for the birth/death model plug), the economy is as fucked as Larry Craig in a bathroom stall (both literally and figuratively).

But hey, the market and all of the HFTs who provide >50% of the liquidity don’t give a shit about any of that because now QE2 is as certain as death or taxes (well at least for 53% of Americans on the last one) and as long as the US keeps devaluing the dollar and buying assets, nothing bad can happen, just ask Japan (but make sure you don’t bring an interpreter because you may not want to hear the answer).