11/5/10 Midevening Report: Economy Stops Blowing Jobs
Hells yeah. The jobs report was released today and the economy added a headline 151k new jobs which means we will be back to a Keynesian healthy unemployment rate sometime around the year 2172, just in time for the third Tralfamadorian invasion of Earth, OJ to find the real killers, and Rocky XVII to be released.
With news this week dominated by the elections, QE2, and supposed leaked nude pictures of Jessica Alba, Money McBags completely forgot that today was Jobs Report day which is among his favorite days of the month (along with every Saturday, Sunday, and humpday). That said, Money McBags is happy to finally get some real economic data to evaluate (that is if you actually believe in the number put out by the B(L)S where rounding to the nearest 1MM and goalseeking are both encouraged) rather than just twiddling his thumbs as hope and QE2 continue to make the market run as if it were in the Trans Europe Foot Race or being chased by a lovesick Nell Carter (and not because she was unattractive, but because she’s dead, and wouldn’t you keep running if a zombie were after you?).
Below are Money McBags’ highlights from today’s jobs report where the economy added jobs for the first time since May when temporary census workers were being snatched up faster than ear plugs at a Heidi Montag concert:
1. The 151k total jobs added beat economist guesses as if the jobs added were Ike Turner on a bender. Economists had guessed that 60k net jobs would be added which once again shows that it doesn’t take a two sided t-test to prove that both tails of economists’ regression models are fatter than Kim Kardashian’s as thinking that we live in a gaussian economy is more ridiculous than any study showing alcohol to be worse than crack or heroin or anything that comes out of Christine O’Donnell’s mouth.
2. The unemployment rate remains at 9.6% as 14.8MM people are pre-long-term unemployed, 6.2MM are regular long-term unemployed, and 2.6MM (up from 2.4MM) are “will work for food stamps” long-term unemployed. Of those 2.6MM people, 1.2MM were classified as discouraged while the other 1.4MM were classified as fucking discouraged. This of course kept the U6 unemployment rate (you know, the one that tries to include everyone not working) at 17% which is less healthy for the economy than getting a Kentucky tractor pull from a condomless Magic Johnson.
3. The report also showed that the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more increased as a percentage of all jobless to 41.8% as job skills erode faster than the Yellow River (and Money McBags does not mean IP Freely’s stunning novel) or Carl Paladino’s political career.
4. The number of temporary workers increased by ~35k as overqualified workers continue to swallow their pride and thus the 151k jobs added is really closer to 116k since those 35k temporary workers will be back in the job market once they finally file all of those fucking papers.
So it’s certainly not a bad thing for the economy that jobs were added, but Money McBags has some real data integrity issues with what the B(L)S presented (and as always, the L is in parentheses because it is silent):
1. You all know Money McBags is no mathematician (though he has many ways to solve the three body problem (hint: flexibility) and he sometimes likes to work things out with a pencil), but if new claims for unemployment are averaging ~450k per week and there are roughly 4 weeks in a month and thus ~1.8MM people lost their jobs, wouldn’t a net 151k new jobs imply that a gross 1.95MM jobs were actually created this month? And there is more of a chance of 1.95MM jobs having been created this past month than there is of Ben Bernanke giving the opening address at a Tea Party convention or Edward Nino Hernandez winning the high jump competition in the next Olympics. Seriously, there is clearly a bigger disconnect here between the new claims for unemployment numbers and the jobs report number than there is between Josef Fritzl and parenting or Amy Winehouse and hygiene as how the fuck can there be 1.8MM people being laid off and yet 151k new jobs created at the same time? It is stranger and more confusing than what goes on at a Rugby party and Money McBags is sure he is just misinterpreting something, but what that something is, he is not quite sure.
2. The prior two months of data were revised up by ~110k with September’s job losses moved from 95k down to 41k and August’s job losses moved from 57k down to 1k. Come again (and if you are Natahsa Alam, Money McBags means that literally)? That’s not revising numbers, that’s just making new numbers the fuck up. So Mr. Hall, how the fuck is Money McBags supposed to believe any numbers your B(L)S organization puts out when they can be so wildly different even more than two months after the data was collected (or randomly generated)? Money McBags has seen smaller revisions in Mitt Romney’s political stands than he has in these numbers so should he take the 151k new jobs created for last month as 151k +/- whatever the fuck the B(L)S wants?
3. The Birth/Death model which remains a bigger black box than that of Jada Fire and is the B(L)S’ way of guesstimating the number of businesses created and destroyed not in their survey (or their way of manipulating the numbers even more, tomato, tumahto), registered 61k. As always, the 61k is not directly additive to the final number but it is somehow combined with the jobs data to make things seem a wee bit better, like the Fed using core inflation instead of actual inflation or putting lipstick on Margaret Cho. So in reality, jobs created were 151k (until next month’s revision) minus something between 0 and 61k.
4. Money McBags broke out all of the data for you from the delightful Table B (pasted below so you can all enjoy the data in its seasonally adjusted form) and when adding up the numbers, he was 1.9k short of the headline number (you can see the plug for which he backsolved). While 1.9k jobs among friends is a triviality (and yes that was sarcasm), there is something very OCD invoking (and shady) about numbers that don’t add the fuck up. But Money McBags understands collecting and counting data is more art than science.
Numbers From Table B:
|Government Jobs||Change in Jobs #|
|Govt Full Time||(3,000)|
|Permanent Private Sector Jobs|
|Education and Healthcare||53,000|
|Leisure and Hospitaility||(5,000)|
|Total Permanent Private Sector||124,100|
|Temporary Private Sector Jobs||34,900|
|Total Headline Jobs #||151,000|
|Birth/Death Model Plug||61,000|
|Actual Jobs #||90,000 to 151,000|
So there we have it. A decent jobs number (unless you take out the 35k temporary jobs and the 61k jobs added by the Birth/Death model, but those are just minor details) which is hopefully the start to an improved economy and not just a B(L)S revision waiting to happen. Sure at least 15MM people remain unemployed and 110k new people enter the workforce every month looking for jobs, but let’s not worry about that and instead bask in the glow of this positive announcement and think happy thoughts while we forget where the Bernanke has touched the economy.
Money McBags didn’t have a chance to get to any small cap stock analysis today, but he still has NTRI on his to do list (though it is far below the delightful Kat Dennings on that list) and wants to point out HIL who put up a nice quarter yesterday and could be an interesting diversification play. Money McBags hopes to break it down next week or this weekend.
Until then enjoy your time off and have a good weekend.
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