Did The Economy Stop Blowing Jobs?
The big news in the market on Friday was the release of the (No) Labor Department’s NFP Jobs Report (more commonly known as the Labor Force Participation Rate Report, or fiction) which showed the ponzeconomy™ added 216k jobs in March which was enough for the administration to pat themselves on their well insured backs and head to their local church to celebrate. So break open the Dom, dish out the beluga, and try not to look the 13.5MM unemployed people in the eyes (or the additional ~10MM U6 fucking unemployed people), because at this rate the ponzeconomy™ will be back to full employment just around the time Bernie Madoff gets out of prison or when former Bush economic adviser Glenn Hubbard‘s sex change is finally complete (he was a woman at one point right? Or is he just trying to crack this list?).
Money McBags would like to break down the jobs report with brilliant insight, unheard of prescience, and tons of boobs (as he did last month), but the story is exactly the fucking same. No really, Money McBags could simply cut and paste this month’s numbers into last month’s column, rinse, repeat, and be done so he can spend his time building out his library and celebrating India’s victory in the Cricket World Cup, but he knows his readers have spent their hard earned dignity clicking over to the award winning When Genius Prevailed and demand new material, so Money McBags will do his best to polish this turd.
1. It’s the math, stupid. Just taking a step back and looking at the numbers in aggregate helps you realize the spin being put on them is more absurd than Don Quixote (though thankfully shorter) or a she-male who is in to chicks. It doesn’t take Daniel Bernoulli, Grigori Perelman, or Patricia Heaton to see that the unemployment rate going from 9.77% to 8.83% since November while an aggregate ~725k jobs were added to the ponzeconomy™ makes less sense than supply side economics (or any economics for that matter).
There were 15MM unemployed people in November, which is now down to 13.5MM, but as we just saw, only ~725k jobs were added, so um, something smells fishier than Cy Waits schlong. Shit, remember that in January a headline 50k jobs were added (before revisions) and the unemployment rate dropped ~35bps and now in March a headline 216k jobs were added (before next months’ likely cocktacular upwards revision) and the unemployment rate dropped only 9bps. So the more jobs that are added, the worse the drop in the unemployment rate. Huh? Come again (and as always, if you are Linsey De Frenne, then please come again)?
The only bizarre conclusion to this farce (and it is a farce more ridiculous than The Third Policeman or Tom Cruise’s marriage) is that in order to get the unemployment rate to zero, the ponzeconomy™ needs to add fewer jobs, not more. So businesses, start laying off more people because then fewer people will be unemployed. It may not be inherently logical, but then again, neither is James Franco’s career or the fact that the market is trading where it was in 2005 despite twice the number of unemployed people and credit no longer freer than Whitney Port’s boobs (though much more harmful). Of course there is one explanation…
2. It’s the labor force participation rate, cocksnot (or the labor farce participation rate as a reader accurately pointed out). Why the numbers above look so full of shit is because 1. they are and 2. there are simply fewer people in the labor force as a % of the population because they have become so fucking discouraged that they aren’t even looking for work (and not that Money McBags is going to quibble with the fine bean counters at the B(L)S, but how the fuck is this measured? No really. As readers know, Money McBags has been unemployed for quite some time as the hedge fund he was at shut down due to what he refers to as “being run by a shitbag” so how does the (No) Labor Department account for him? How do they know if he is looking for a job or not looking (though trust him, he is looking harder than he looks for just the right Marisa Miller pic, and he does offer references upon request)? The B(L)S doesn’t write him, doesn’t call him, shit, they don’t even send him funny forwarded emails with inappropriate jokes or pictures of large breasted women. So how the fuck do they calculate this number and is Money McBags considered in the labor force or out of the labor force because he would really like to know at what point he becomes more marginalized than Tito Jackson?).
The labor force participation rate remains at a ~30 year low of 64.2% (and to put that in perspective, about the same number of Americans either don’t believe in evolution or don’t know, so um, ugh). If that number were just the 64.5% it was in November, the unemployment rate would be 9.2%. If it were the the 66% 10 year average, the unemployment rate would be 11.3%. So take the 216k headline jobs added number and the fallacious 8.8% unemployment rate with a whatever is tastier than a grain of salt (Money McBags would suggest two grains of salt, or Brooklyn Decker‘s nipple sweat).
3. It’s the long-term unemployed, asswad. There are still >6MM people who haven’t had a job for 27 weeks which is up 129k from last month as skills erode faster than the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant (or the Japanese government’s credibility). That is 45% of the total unemployed (not including the discouraged, the fucking discouraged, and Gilbert Gottfried) and that is why we need to look at the U6 unemployment rate of 15.7% as it is closer to a real unemployment number since it includes the 2.4MM people marginally attached to the labor force (and marginally attached in the same way that Liz Hurley is marginally attached to marriage or Tom Delay is marginally attached to rhythm). Money McBags keeps referring to the long-term unemployed (who are likely 35+ years old and more fucked than Nikki Benz in The Money Hole) as the new Lost Generation because their houses, their jobs, and their self-respect have all been lost.
4. It’s the birth-death model, shitstain: Yep, as if the B(L)S’ credibility weren’t bad enough, they “adjust” the unemployment numbers by using a black box model (and the most influential black box model since Jeannie Pepper) which folded another 117k into the employed bucket. The B(L)S never says how this is calculated (Money McBags’ guesses lovingly and with a lot of hardcoding), how they massage it in to the numbers (Money Mcbags guesses with a a lot of vaseline and a shoe horn), and why it oscillates so much between unbelievable and really fucking unbelievable. Let’s say you were taking a test and you got 11 out of 16 correct, but the grader came back and said they are going to give you credit for 15, just for shits and giggles, would that seem credible?
5. It’s the new entrants, douchelicker: Even if we assume 216k jobs were really added and the birth-death model somehow calculates something valuable other than the gullibility of witch doctors, 90k to 150k new workers enter the work force every month (depending on if you believe the CBO or see BS). So even adding 216k jobs barely brings the unemployed back to work the force as all it really does is fill in the demand created by new high school drop outs, immigrants, and the bankrupt (aka recent college graduates) joining the labor force.
6. It’s the Congo, cumguzzlers. This has nothing to do with unemployment, but facts are facts.
7. It’s the government, turdburglars. While the private sector added 230k jobs (again including our old friend the birth-death model and including temporary jobs, which we will get to later), the government continues to shed jobs faster than Charlie Sheen sheds fans or the Femen Movement sheds clothes (though gains supporters as Money McBags promises to donate at least 10% of the proceeds from this analysis to support their causes by attending his local Rick’s Cabaret which is Femen’s best recruiting vehicle. And yes readers, Money McBags is now up nearly 50% on RICK since telling you all to buy back). The government fired 14k more workers and with the Federal Government threatening to shut down, the muni market set to blow (shout out to the lovely Meredith Whitney who Money McBags would love to have restore his dividend), and public officials less likely to find jobs in the private sector than a eunuch is to find a job in the privates sector, this is more troubling than taking a dong to the head. Money McBags keeps saying the government sector bears watching, and he also says Alice Goodwin bears watching, so watch away.
8. It’s the permanent jobs, assholeface (shout out to Dice). Included in the supposedly jizzriffic 216k jobs added are 28.8k temporary jobs which means in a just a few short months or weeks or days, those 28.8 people will be back in the ranks of the unemployed, unless the government finally gets wise to Money McBags’ “Fuck Off” strategy and just starts lowering the labor force participation rate to completely wipe out unemployment. Seriously, Money McBags could solve the whole fucking problem with just a key stroke (though if any key is going to get stroked, he hopes it is his key and Kate Bosworth doing the stroking).
And it’s not just that all the jobs aren’t permanent, but people are being forced to take jobs for which they are overqualified (like market analyst and dick joke writer on the internet) while they wait for their old jobs never to come back. Plus, the average wage was unchanged at one lap dance and $2.87 per hour and with gas prices rising, food costs growing, and Kristen Stewart nude scenes coming out, workers are going to start feeling poorer and poorer than Zsa Zsa Gabor‘s leg.
9. Once again, it’s the math, stupid. Despite the (No) Labor Department Administrative Assistant Hilda L. Solis (and since you all know Money McBags belives in being politically correct, he refuses to call them Secretaries) saying “Today’s numbers highlight steady, sustained and widespread job growth” (because apparently the definition of widespread can be so vague, like in last sentence where it means neither wide, nor spread), if you add up everything Money McBags just wrote, you will see that the jobs number was less impressive than a supermoon (or a really super moon). If you take the headline 216k number, subtract out the 28.8k temporary jobs, and then realize there are somewhere between 0 and 117k completely fictitious jobs in the number due to the birth-death plug, new permanent jobs added were ~70k to 187k which is pretty much inline with the monthly new entrants (and if this were the workforce, Money McBags would love to be a new entrant).
Plus, the numbers just don’t add the fuck up. There were 13.673MM people unemployed in February and 13.542 unemployed in March. So that means 131k found work (or were marginalized by being kicked out of the labor force like bigger packages have been kicked out of store shelves or Mrs. Reich’s bed). But the labor force actually went up by 160k due to the population increasing and a slight uptick in the employment-population rate, so if unemployment went down by 131k and 160k new people were added to the labor force, that means 291k jobs had to be added, and yet only 216k were added (with the help of the birth-death model of course). So where the fuck did those other 75k go or were they just pulled out of Betsey Stevenson‘s well forecasted ass?
|Increase in Labor Force||160|
|March Change in Jobs|
|Govt Full Time||(14,000)|
|Private Sector Jobs|
|Education and Healthcare||44,500|
|Leisure and Hospitaility||37,000|
|Total Private Sector||230,000|
|Temporary Private Sector Jobs||28,800|
|Total Permanent Jobs #||187,200|
|Birth/Death Model Plug||117,000|
|Actual Jobs #||70,200 to 187,200|
So there you have it. Once again the ponzeconomy™ is getting marginally relatively better while remaining more absolutely assawful than Rasheen Harrison’s girlfriend’s arrival home from work (and almost as shittastic). The fact is there are five unemployed workers for every job opening and 2MM unemployed workers for every Kayla Collins opening, so things remain ridonkulously competitive. That said, while the Jobs Report headlines highlighted the 216,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 8.8%, it’s a number barely (or not at all) keeping up with new work force entrants and as inflation is coming and wages are stagnant, QE3 is likely going to be the only solution no matter how much the B(L)S adjusts the birth-death model, the labor force participation rate, or Keith Halls’ pornstache (and by solution, Money McBags means whatever you call something that makes the problem worse by pushing it out for the next asshole to have to fix, perhaps a “shitty solution” is the proper term). But hey, just buy the fucking dip.
|Print article||This entry was posted by Money McBags on April 3, 2011 at 11:13 pm, and is filed under Economic update. Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.|
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