General

Where Have You Gone Money McBags? The Ponzeconomy Turns its Lonely Lies To You. Spew Spew Spew.

Hells yeah, Money McBags is back with some content (sort of, but more on that later, and more on this now).  You’ll have to excuse his absence which has lasted much longer than he expected (though not as long as it took to put together the Mesopotamian dictionary which hopefully will be followed by the Mesopotamian Urban Dictionary where we can learn all of the different connotations of Alexander’s helmet and dropping a Hammurabi code), but Money McBags:

1.  Started a new job (labor force participation rate be damned) which has led him to spend an inordinate amount of time once again trying to fit his round peg in to the business world’s square hole while also working diligently to make a better first impression than Peter Diamond.

2.  Relocated from parts unknown to parts better known (though unfortunately none of the parts were known to be attached to Kate Upton).

3.  Spent copious hours trying to answer the B(L)S’ 54k job question which requires a shitload of hope, goal seeking, and even some Calabi-Yau shapes to get to anything resembling a healthy Ponzeconomy™ in this world of the infinite multiverse.

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But most importantly:

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4.  Was unable to toggle his computer over to WordPress to publish his titriffic columns as he found it his civic duty (and yes he said duty) to use his fat finger to analyze every inch of the very NSFW Blake Lively nude photos.  Yeoman’s, work Money McBags’ friends, yeoman’s work.

Trust Money McBags, his absence has hurt him more than a PA trade hurt David Sokol as since he has been gone we’ve had Schwarzennegger‘s love child (and Money McBags will take the over on number of mistresses the Governator has had, as well as the under if this was one of them), DSK’s forced African stimulus plan (who said the French never did anything for their colonies?), Anthony Weiner’s fucking weiner (and his figurative self-immolation where he finally got a load off of his chest, after trying to put a load on many other chests), and a swarm of angry beavers attacking Philadelphia (though unfortunately not these angry beavers).   So dear comedy gods, really?  You couldn’t have done this three fucking months ago when Money McBags was trying to make shit like the Fed Notes, Europe’s Bank Stress Tests, and the Chicago PMI funny?

Anyway, Money McBags dearly wanted to write this weekend about the NFP Jobs Report (with NFP of course standing for No Fucking Pay) as he was tickled pink by the black box model (while also dreaming of tickling the pink of this black box model) that is the BLS birth/death plug which registered a cockposturous 200k jobs added and once again showed the Ponzeconomy™ to be less healthy than Sino-Forest’s balance sheet or Pam Anderson’s vagina.  Even if the birth/death plug were real (and Money McBags believes in the Easter Bunny, Hanukkah Harry, and Newt Gingrich more than the birth/death model), the jobs number was still more disappointing to the outdated models of economists than the Disney adult entertainment fantasy cruise was to members of the Red Rooster club.

Money McBags really wanted to write about the fact that even though 54k jobs were added last month, the number of unemployed people went up from 13.674MM to 13.779MM, the labor force participation rate remained at 20ish year lows, and the Smurfs were finally exposed for the racist little fucks that they are.  Alas, he was busy getting his new life in order so he didn’t have the time, but things are starting to fall in to place and he may be able to get out content on a more frequent basis (though no promises).

That said, before he left for the great hedge fund in the sky, he had an email exchange with KITD’s CEO Kaleil Tuzman where he sent Mr. Tuzman a flurry of insightful (and titsightful) questions to be answered.  As Mr. Tuzman was in the midst of buying a different company than he led the Street to believe he would be acquiring while also furiously penning many anti-short tomes to investors to let them know that the market was misunderstanding the KITD story, he apparently didn’t have time to fully respond.

Yet after many emails back and forth (and back and forth forever, and kind reader, if you go to one Money McBags’ link today, let it be the Blake Lively NSFW photos, but if you go to two, let it be the Blake Lively photos and then the back and forth forever link), Mr. Tuzman finally got to Money McBags’ questions and promised they would be through his legal council by Monday of this week.  This Q&A is the content Money McBags promised over the weekend that he would put out today and it would have been a hella fucking deep and intriguing look at KITD to remind everyone why Money McBags is known as the world’s most dangerous analyst.

Alas (a lass? all ass), Mr. Tuzman emailed Money McBags the other day to let him know that the answers are hung up with KITD’s lawyers and will not be properly scrubbed until next week (and trust Money McBags, his questions needed scrubbing like the dirty little inquisitions that they are).  So Money McBags apologizes for promising content and then leaving you all more hung out to dry than Fabulous Fabrice Tourre whose only defense seems to be to blame it on the rain.

This of course is about the 10th time Mr. Tuzman has promised to answer Money McBags’ questions and delivered about as well as QE2 or a vaginal artesia sufferer, so who knows if Money McBags will ever get the answers.  At this point, Money McBags is seriously considering changing Mr. Tuzman’s moniker from “The Great Diluter” to the “The Big Stock (question) Tease” (of course Money McBags could have just asked Mr. Tuzman when he saw him yesterday, but Clark Kent must never reveal his secret identity).

So apologies for the lack of real content (though this pointless diatribe will still be ~1.3k words, with several dick jokes, and new bodies of thought), Money McBags hopes to have the KITD Q&A next week and then will try to be back with original material shortly thereafter.

Money McBags does appreciate you being patient (and if this were you, he would be very very patient as well).

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*Writer’s note:  If you have made it this far, you clearly have run out of NSFW muffs to guess so Money McBags has a question for you:  Would you prefer a long (~1.5k word) weekly column or a short (~300 word) nightly update?  Money McBags isn’t sure which will work best or which he will try to do, but your input is most appreciated (especially if this is your input).  The biggest bottleneck right now is Money McBags’ inability to surf the web during the day to find the links and content you all deserve, so he will be accepting applications for interns to do that for him at moneymcbags@gmail.com (and he is only 42% joking).

Economic Update: Ponzeconomy Gets Hamburgled

Dear Readers,

It has been a bit of time since Money McBags has had a chance to formally reach out to you other than a quick hello on the twitter or the Facebook.  So how are things?  Hopefully better than the planned AIG equity offering, the Governator’s marriage, or Joel Hardman’s Halloween costume (and yes, Money McBags said “hard man”).

Anyway, Money McBags has been looking for ways to stay in touch and put out content while he adjusts to his new routine of putting on pants and interacting with the world for 12 hours a day, and well, he’s still trying to figure things out more than the buyers of the Timberwolf CDO.  That said, he has been talking with the guy who recently launched this site for almost a year about doing something together, and well, this is kind of what happened (and go ahead and click on that, no seriously, click on it, here it is again in case you missed it).

Money McBags will not make any comments, he will leave that to you, his readers to decide what you think and provide feedback.  Money McBags will just say 3 things about that video:

1. That is obviously not him and he had no role in picking his not really doppelganger.

2.  It was a first pass, and remember how emasculating your first time was.

3.  To be fair, Kate Upton is really fucking hot.

Anyway, Money McBags might have some content in a few days (no really, he means it), there may be more webisodes, and there likely will even be some Marisa Miller.

But if you need a fix, below is the script Money McBags sent the guys making the video (and the entirety of his contribution to the process, so you can see how that sausage was made).  You can even see the two notes he inserted and his bizarre use of the first person, (because Money McBags felt using the third person would be terribly gauche),  It is ~1k words of new content, though for the first time Money McBags does use some previously written material, but is still a cockload better than anything else out there (and not any cockload, but a Lexington Steele Cockload), so enjoy:

The market was down last week as news was generally less positive than Nouriel Roubini in a punch bowl, or a Chaz Bono pregnancy test.  New claims for unemployment rose to 474k thus claiming the economy still sucks, Portugal and Greece continued to teeter on the verge of bankruptcy like Larry Craig at the Thunder Down Under, and the Pippa Middleton topless photo proved to be less revealing than the inconceivable Lloyd Blankfein at a congressional hearing (note for web/video production:  if you can put the last two links as one visual, it makes the joke funnier.  Goldman’s CEO Lloyd Blankfein looks like the guy from the Princess Bride who says “inconceivable”).

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Not even the death of colossal asshat and world’s worst person Osama Bin Laden could rally the markets as investors bought the rumor and sold the news faster than Mark Sanford’s wife (note to whoever is editing this, Rashard Mendenhall’s sponsors may work here as well, depends on visuals, but it is a more current reference).  That said, with healthcare and terrorism now solved, the administration can focus on more important matters like figuring out how to crown a college football national champion, how to better align with the Femen movement, and exactly whose fat finger caused last year’s flash crash (though they might want to start by questioning Ellen Degeneres because she has to have some hella fat fingers to attract this).

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The big news of the week though was the Jobs Report which was so headliney good that after it was released dogs were seen hugging cats, Hatfields dancing with McCoys, and Keynesian economists sharing their crystal balls with Austrian economists (even as Keynes’ work continues to becomes more tainted than Faye Reagan’s chin while giving a rusty trombone).

Pundits lauded the addition of 268k jobs to the private sector but if you dig in to that number, you will see that it is more overblown than Charlie Sheen on “date night.”

First of all, the ponzeconomy™ added 244k jobs, not 268k, because the government pared 24k jobs and this remains troubling because public sector workers, with their 3 hour lunch breaks and 5 hour work days, are less likely to find new jobs in the private sector than eunuchs are to find jobs in the privates sector.

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Secondly, the fictitious BLS birth-death model (which is such a big black box that it makes Robert Deniro salivate) somehow added in another 175k jobs.  While we still have no idea how this is calculated (though I would guess lovingly and with a lot of hardcoding), how it is massaged in to the numbers (though I would guess with a lot of vaseline and a shoe horn), and why it oscillates so much between unbelievable and really fucking unbelievable, we are told that you can’t simply deduct the 175k from the headline number as it is somehow adjusted and folded in to the 268k new jobs created like a chicken leg folds in to one of Kristie Alley’s fat rolls.  The point is, taking out the made up birth-death numbers, the ponzeconomy™ added somewhere between a delicious 69k jobs and 244k jobs.

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But wait, there is more.  McDonalds hired 62k people last month which is 25% to 90% of the total jobs created (depending on how you want to treat the Birth-Death model numbers, though I suggest treating them with skepticism and a bottle of Fungoral) and that is enough to make investors grimace as there can only be one Mayor McCheese, so 99.9% of the 62k jobs added were likely minimum wage jobs.  And with inflation shooting up like River Phoenix at the Viper Room, minimum wage jobs are becoming less useful than running shoes are to Stephen Hawking.

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Here are some more fun facts:

2.5MM people remain marginally attached to the labor force and marginally attached in the same way that Sarah Palin is marginally attached to a copy of Strunk and White.  Among those marginally attached, 989k were labeled as “discouraged,” making the other 1.5MM fucking discouraged.

The unemployment rate was 8.8% for adult men, 7.9% for adult women, and 100% for people named Osama Bin Laden.

Kate Upton is hot.  While this fact has nothing to do with the jobs number, it is very important to know.

13.7MM people are now unemployed, which is up from 13.5MM people last month even as a headline 268k jobs were added. So um, huh?  Come again?  And if you are Rose Huntington Whiteley, then please, come again.

Just think about that for a second.  The economy added jobs, but there are more people unemployed and the unemployment rate went up from 8.8% to 9%, so using something called logic, shouldn’t the (No) Labor Department be focused on creating fewer jobs to get the unemployment rate down?  It is more of a paradox than Jamie Lee Curtis’ gender.

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But there is a reason for this and that is that the Household Survey, which actually measures unemployment, is more unrelated to the jobs number than sanity is related to an Alan Greenspan economic policy.  And the key point is that in that survey, the labor force participation rate fell to a ~30 year low of 64.2% which is such a low labor force that the ponzeconomy™ may need a c-section (and that joke may hit you in a second).

This explains why jobs were added and yet the unemployment rate went up in a mathematical sleight of hand that would make Fibbonacci proud and Bernie Madoff’s dick hard.  With a more normalized labor force participation rate, the unemployment rate would be closer to 11%  and along with the U6 unemployment rate still hovering ~16% (+/- BLS Head Keith Hall’s credibility, and I never trust anyone with a pornstache), that highlights that job growth is still slower than a conversation between Kirk Douglas and Dick Clark.

So adjusting for government layoffs (which is a trend more negative than dickflashing), the birth-death model (which is a number more made up than anything on AIG’s balance sheet), and McDonalds’ new hires (which is as positive of a sign for the unemployed as the “bridge out” sign was for Mary Jo Kopechne), the ponzeconomy™ added somewhere between 7k and 182k new jobs so anyway you look at it, the economy got hamburgled (which is slightly less healthy than getting turd burgled).

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While we know neither Rome, nor Pam Anderson, were built in a day, at this pace the recovery will be over sometime in the year 2025 which will be just in time for opening night of the Spiderman musical, so plan accordingly.

Site Update: Searching for the Fountain of Truth

Money McBags is going to be off for most of this week as at the last minute he decided to fly West for a spring break, and unlike the only other almost vacation he has taken in the nearly year and a half of writing the award winning When Genius Prevailed, he has sworn that this won’t be another bustman‘s holiday.  As a result, his time on the internet is going to be more limited than Gary Coleman’s kidney so he apologizes for that since he knows you all require your daily dose of dick jokes with a bit of market analysis sprinkled in for the kids.

Money McBags may be back on Friday, but will hopefully have something out this weekend where he will answer many of the rumors about him that seem to have been swirling on different sites over the past few weeks.  Plus, KITD’s CEO has said he will answer Money McBags’ questions sometime soon, so Money McBags will post those as soon as he receives them (could be tomorrow, could be Friday, could be “just kidding, now go fuck yourself” day.   The ball is no longer in Money McBags’ court on that one).

So take these few days to fuck around in the archives, email Money McBags questions (he will still be hitting up email on his blackberry as that has not been banned, so he will do his best to get back to you), and enjoy some soothing music to help you get through what will likely be a choppy market without Money McBags’ column to make you feel a bit better.

Site Update: Just a Quickie

Money McBags apologizes for not being able to get to a weekend report over the past couple of days but he was not only busy serving as a special mediator for the budget crisis (and unfortunately they didn’t take his solution of all going to fuck themselves), but he was also completely mesmerized by this video to the point that he has spent over 72 hours now trying to derive the etymology of each phrase and the language of origin (though he believes much of the song comes from the 1869 Harvard Entrance Exam).

Anyway, not much shit happened on Friday other than oil prices surged after more fighting in Libya (which is bad news for most Americans whose wages remain flatter than a plagiocephalists’ head, but good news for the Fed since it won’t change how they’re not fighting inflation), gold spiked to record levels (and if you follow Money McBags on the Facebook or the Twitter you know he alerted readers that these spiking gold prices caused Mr. T’s neck to become the richest American, though Money McBags pities the fool who thinks those gold chains are real), and the Femen Movement finally got their Facebook page re-instated.  So it’s not like you missed a ton of shit by not having a full Money McBags column (though you may have missed some Ali Sonoma).

As for this week, Money McBags is shooting to be back on his normal schedule of a column per day with Friday’s report coming sometime over the weekend but Wednesday may be a bit difficult as he has some shit he needs to take care of and unfortunately that shit doesn’t involve meeting up with the polyamorous one and trying to get to the bottom of l’affair de Sokol or the bottom of this.  If you have pressing questions, links for the column, or just want to say hi, Money McBags can always be reached at moneymcbags@gmail.com (but please no more cock shots).

4/7/10 Midnight Report: Budget? We Don’t Need No Stinking Budget

The market stumbled a bit today on news of a potential government shutdown (and politicians quibbling over a $40B budget difference is like someone quibbling over Brooklyn Decker‘s SAT scores because in the big picture, it is more irrelevant than Donald Trump), a new earthquake hitting Japan (luckily no damage was done but the Pacific plates continue to move faster than the plates on Hakuhō Shō’s table at an all you can eat Benihana), and the name of the year ballot being released which caused traders to ignore the market and furiously google Mr. Moe Lester (and for the record, Money McBags thinks Yu Arafuka will edge out Mercedes Bunz at the buzzer, though it was good to see old WGP friend Madz Negro get some more props).

Either way the market is bouncing up against three year highs despite the recovery of the ponzeconomy™ being more of an illusion than the Fraser Spiral or Ben Bernanke’s grasp of inflation (or deflation, or anyfuckingflation), and with both the VIX going down faster than Sasha Grey on a casting couch and short interest dwindling like Money McBags’ material (hey, you try writing a daily dick joke column on the market every business day for 16 months and see how long you can come up with original jokes for weekly new claims for unemployment, the PPI, and Alan Greenspan’s taint), the market is due for a sell off (that is if anyone other than computer driven algorithms actually own any equities).

The big macro news of the day was obviously that Katrina Bowden showed up on the delightful meinmyplace.  The second biggest news was that the government is on the verge of a shutdown (and we all know what happened the last time the government shut down, so um, let Money McBags know if Obama buddy Robert Titcomb (and yes Money McBags wrote Titcomb) is in charge of the White House’s “Shut Down” party because Money McBags would like to get an invite to that).  That said, the House passed a bill to keep the government funded for another week on the conditions of $12 billion in spending cuts and Nancy Pelosi being sent to her room without dinner (or botox).  But even if the bill passes the Senate, it will be vetoed by the President who is still trying to iron out a compromise where the budget doesn’t get cut and Republicans go fuck themselves, so as you can see, it is a very tricky compromise to negotiate.  Not only are 800k government jobs threatened by the potential cuts (including park rangers, contractors, and bank CEOs) but important departments such as the B(L)S will be shuttered leaving the administration to manipulate data the old fashioned way, by pulling it out of their own asses.  Money McBags is sure a compromise will be reached though so government officials can go back to getting paid to do nothing rather than not getting paid to do something (that something of course being bitching and moaning about maybe having to find a real job).

In actual macro news, initial claims for unemployment fell by 10k from 388k to 382k in the B(L)S’ constant disregard for mathematical laws and believability.  As usual, last week’s 388k was revised up to 392k in the “Hold the shock and hope for no awe” strategy that has been more of a stunning success for the government than Social Security (until sometime around 2030, but lets not dwell on the negative).  Analysts guessed that the number would be 385k, but they are only what is one chromosome short of human, so you have to forgive them for their miss.  But riddle Money McBags this (because he is neither a macroeconomist nor plays one on TV), if ~380k people per week are making new claims for unemployment, that implies ~1.5MM people a month are losing their jobs, and yet from the (No) Labor Department’s Labor Force Participation Rate report released last Friday, the economy added only ~216k jobs and the unemployment rate went down.  So um, 1.5MM people a month are new unemployment receivers but the unemployment rate is going down on 216k new jobs being added, can someone explain the lunacy of those numbers since they seem to make less sense when looked at together than Christina Hendricks and this reject from the Sweat Hogs.

Elsewhere, US retail sales rose an unexpected 1.7% in March, easily beating analyst guesses of a .7% decline. but as we know, using gaussian models to forecast an extreme world works about as well as Armenia’s internet or abstinence, so the fact that analysts actually arrived a a whole number should be considered a victory.  In addition to retail sales rising, consumer credit was up more than guesses as US consumer borrowing jumped for a fifth straight month, driven by non-revolving credit such as student loans, car loans, and insanity.  But not to worry because Fed President Lacker (Lacker? Money McBags hardly even knows her, though if this were her, he would lack away) said the stimulus should unwind by year end thanks to the momentum in economic growth which turns out to be directly fucking tied to the stimulus not going away, so um, yeah.

Internationally, the ECB raised rates by 25bps to 125bps as they worry about rising prices on things such as food, gas, and Portugal.  While an increase in rates will mean better returns for the 3 people still with savings, it will make it harder for the now officially bankrupt countries like Portugal (and the unofficially bankrupt countries like all of them except for Germany) to continue to raise funding at non-exorbitant rates.

And speaking of Portugal, they are negotiating a bailout of somewhere between 75B euros and “we’re really fucked” euros, with those close to the situation thinking it will be closer to the “we’re fucked” amount.  It’s not clear if Portugal will need to seek bilateral loans (and the loans will be so bilateral that they will take money from other loans of the same gender) until the bailout is agreed upon, or if they will have to put Sara Kostov up as collateral.  So with Portugal getting bailed out, 3 of the little PIIGS have had the “Big Bad WTF were they doing?” blow their economies down.  Next up Italy and Spain, that is if they can wake anyone up long enough from their work week siesta to give a shit.

In the market, CSCO continues to struggle as CEO John Chambers’ “Foot in Mouth” Tour (with soon to be featured speakers George Allen and Rex Ryan) proceeds with abandon (the abandon being shareholders).  Chambers promised to turn shit around and refocus on the core business while saying he will also “double down” on video (and note to readers, KITD would be a hella attractive target for a CSCO, so just keep that in the back of your mind, and keep this in the front of your mind).  That said, C cut their price target on CSCO from $22 to $20 citing margin pressure and not wanting to be the last asshole left holding the bag.

In small cap news, Money McBags analyzed the fuck out of QCOR last night for your reading pleasure and wants to punch himself in the balls for not buying SFLY after their last Q when he told you all the stock would likely keep going up but it just wasn’t for him.  Hopefully you read his analysis and not his pussying out conclusion and went in for a nice gain.

Writer’s note: Money McBags has written nearly 300 of these daily columns and on all but ~4 or 5 of them he is happy to put his name as he works hard as shit to make sure they are not just original and funny, but also contain solid analysis and plenty of tits.  Well today Money McBags has to admit that he just didn’t have it.  Whether it was the excitement of finding the perfect theme song for if/when the award winning When Genius Prevailed goes on a road show (and then having the chorus of that song get stuck in his head), or whether it was just exhaustion from killing it on QCOR yesterday and for the 65th week in a row trying to make the new claims for unemployment report funny, he just feels like this was a bit laborious tonight.  That said, whenever he feels this way, people tend to think it is his best stuff, so WTF does he know, he just writes it.  So if by chance you didn’t enjoy today’s column, Money McBags apologizes for that, he didn’t really enjoy writing it either, and perhaps it showed.  That said, it still kicks the piss out of the other shit out there, so there’s that.

Huge Site News

Loyal readers, many of you are aware of the internet rumors that have been going on about the fate of the award winning When Genius Prevailed and Money McBags, especially after Money McBags’ recent ~2 week hiatus.

Well today Money McBags has great news to announce.  In his absence he was working on a pilot to air nightly, directly after Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC and Money McBags just learned the network picked it up.  Unfuckingreal.  It’s been an amazing journey and Money McBags is thrilled to have this type of opportunity.

He can’t say much more about it, but this press release will soon be going out.

3/21/11 Update: Still on Hi-anus

Hi-anus, hiatus.  Potato, puhtatao.  The point is Money McBags is still going to be away for a bit, and trust him, this hurts him more than a purple nurple from Janet Yellen (though one should ask Dick Fisher for the exact details).  There is a slim chance Money McBags will be back with a column on Tuesday or Wednesday, but there is also a slim chance WGO is worth more than $7.50 or Brooklyn Decker is fellating Money McBags as he types this, so just hang in there for a few more days.

Once again, Money McBags apologizes to his loyal readers for this break in the action.  He’d really like to pontificate on the bombing of Libya (and Money McBags hears the allies will bomb worse than the Situation at the Trump Roast, or Money McBags on the phone with CRUS’s CEO), the supposed stabilization of Japanese nuclear reactors (and Money McBags hears they are about as stable as Francium or Lindsay Lohan‘s career), or the Big East eating more dick in the NCAA tournament than Nina Hartley in the 1980s.  Unfortunately, he is in a bit of a fire drill and just doesn’t have the bandwidth.

As always, if you have quick questions, Money McBags can be reached at moneymcbags@gmail.com, but as always, please, no cock shots.